**Ukraine’s Central Bank Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged**
In a move to maintain stability in the country’s economy, Ukraine’s National Bank (NBU) has decided to keep its key interest rate at 15.5%. This decision was made on April 17, and it comes after three previous increases since the beginning of this year.
The NBU stated that keeping the interest rate unchanged will help sustain the foreign exchange market, control inflation expectations, and gradually reduce inflation to a target of 5% over the policy horizon. However, the bank also acknowledged the high level of uncertainty surrounding the economy due to the ongoing full-scale war with Russia.
**Economic Growth Forecast Lowered**
The NBU lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.1%, citing “global trade confrontations” as a major threat to economic growth and inflation. This is a decrease from the previously expected 4% growth rate.
Inflation, which skyrocketed to 26.6% in 2022, had subsided to 12% in 2024, exceeding the NBU’s forecast. The bank expects inflation to drop to 8.7% by the end of this year and reach the target of 5% in 2026.
**Military Developments**
Germany has provided Ukraine with a new package of military assistance, including IRIS-T air defense systems and missiles for Patriots. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that intelligence has identified the captain of an oil embargo-breaking tanker as part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.
Ukrainian troops have recaptured territories near the settlements of Udachne, Kotlyne, and Shevchenko. However, President Zelensky warned that new Russian attacks are possible, especially ahead of Easter.
**Ruble Appreciates**
According to Bloomberg’s calculations, the ruble has appreciated by 38% against the dollar in the over-the-counter market since the start of this year, outpacing gold’s 23% rise. This reflects growing dissatisfaction with Russia’s actions and manipulation of legacy for justifying its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
**International Developments**
The United Kingdom would support a potential German decision to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, according to a report by the Telegraph on April 16. European Union officials have warned that Serbia could be blocked from joining the EU if its president travels to Moscow for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 9 Victory Parade.
**Commentary**
The NBU’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects its cautious approach to economic stability in the face of uncertainty caused by ongoing war with Russia. While inflation expectations are under control, the threat of global trade confrontations and potential Russian attacks remains a concern for the Ukrainian economy.
International support for Ukraine continues to grow, with Germany providing military aid and the UK expressing willingness to back German missile deliveries. However, Serbia’s potential EU membership bid hangs in the balance due to its president’s planned visit to Moscow.
The ongoing conflict and economic uncertainty highlight the need for continued international support and cooperation between Ukraine and its allies to ensure stability and growth in the region.
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