**Russia’s War on Ukraine: A New Year of Challenges**
Russian President Vladimir Putin is starting 2025 with a bold move, announcing his readiness for negotiations “without preconditions” in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for a settlement in Ukraine.
However, experts say that Russia’s idea of “no conditions” means cutting off Ukraine from meaningful security guarantees and downgrading NATO’s ability to deter and defend member states in Eastern Europe. This outcome would be disastrous for the U.S. and set the stage for renewed warfare.
But it doesn’t have to be this way. While 2025 will be a tough year for Ukrainian forces, Russia faces significant challenges of its own.
**Russia’s Economy on Shaky Ground**
Russia’s wartime economy is under severe strain, with inflation, labor shortages, and new sanctions targeting oil exports spelling trouble in the year ahead. Putin has admitted that inflation is an alarming signal, and experts say it could lead to widespread discontent among Russian elites.
The civilian aviation sector has been hit hard by sanctions, with many Western aircraft grounded due to lack of parts and expertise. Gazprom, Russia’s gas giant, has reported plans for 40% cuts to its headquarters staff.
**Moscow’s Manufacturing Capacity in Jeopardy**
Ukrainian long-range strikes have taken a heavy toll on Russia’s manufacturing capacity, with factories and bases inside Russia targeted by drones and missiles. Ukraine launched its largest barrage yet last week, further weakening Russia’s industrial base.
**Russia’s Manpower Woes**
Replacing soldiers is another challenge for Moscow. Russia has lost over 800,000 troops since the second invasion began, a staggering number that would fill the Superdome 10 times over. To pay this butcher’s bill, Putin has turned to North Korean troops and increased sign-on bonuses and casualty payouts.
**Russia’s Ability to Project Power in Question**
Putin’s war on Ukraine has also crippled his ability and willingness to intervene in Syria to save former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Russia appears to have lost access to the crucial Tartus naval base, and a broader withdrawal of Russian vehicles and cargo is underway.
Despite these setbacks, Putin is preparing to enter peace talks with maximalist goals. By supporting Ukraine, the Trump team can make Putin’s choices even more painful. With sustained U.S. and Western support, Ukraine can outlast Russia and secure a better outcome after years of combat.
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