**Russia’s Focused Effort: The Battle for Pokrovsk Heats Up**
In the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have intensified their efforts to capture the strategic city of Pokrovsk. The battle for control of this key urban center has significant implications for the entire Donbas region.
**Three-Axis Advance**
Russian troops are employing a three-axis advance on Novoekonomichne, a crucial defensive line that runs through the village and into the surrounding area. This tactic allows Russian forces to divide their attention and resources between multiple fronts, putting pressure on Ukrainian defenses from various angles.
The northern axis, which passes through Nova Poltava and Shevchenko, is particularly vulnerable as it offers open ground for a breakthrough. If Ukraine fails to reinforce this area within the next month, Russian troops could reach Novoekonomichne’s northern edge, severely compromising the city’s defenses.
**Next Steps: Myrnohrad and Industrial Zone in Crosshairs**
If Novoekonomichne falls, Russian forces are expected to:
* Launch a direct assault on Myrnohrad
* Attack the industrial zone of the local enrichment plant
* Advance northeast through Fedorivka, Zatyshok, Sukhetske, and Radynske
This would complete the northwestern encirclement of Pokrovsk and sever one of the city’s last two supply highways.
**Can Ukraine Stop the Encirclement?**
To prevent full encirclement, Ukraine must hold the defensive line running through Novoekonomichne-Razine-Novotoretske, anchored along the Kazennyi Torets River. Recent footage shows robust Ukrainian fortifications, but these defenses need to be manned and supported.
**Strategic Uncertainty: Russia’s Divided Focus**
Ukrainian analysts note that Russia may be pursuing two competing objectives: a push toward Kostiantynivka from the southwest and a breakthrough toward Pokrovsk from the east. This divided focus could lead to failure on both fronts, as Russian forces struggle to maintain momentum.
**Timeline: When Could Russia Encircle Pokrovsk?**
Matveyev estimates that Russia may need 2-4 weeks just to reach Novoekonomichne from all three directions. Even under favorable conditions, full encirclement wouldn’t be feasible until autumn – and only if Ukraine fails to reinforce.
**Conclusion: A City at the Center of the Storm**
Unless Ukraine suffers a major military collapse, Russia is unlikely to take Pokrovsk within six months. Ukrainian troops have defended Chasiv Yar for over a year, and even at the current pace, Russia won’t take all of Donetsk Oblast by January. Still, Ukrainian forces must remain vigilant, as the northwestern flank of Pokrovsk is under growing pressure.
The battle for control of this key urban center will shape the course of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Will Ukraine be able to hold its ground and prevent a Russian encirclement, or will Russia’s relentless push ultimately succeed? Only time will tell.
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