**Russia’s Military Expansion: A Growing Threat to NATO**
In a disturbing trend, Russia is producing weapons at an unprecedented rate while planning significant military expansion. Despite waging war in Ukraine, Russian forces aim to grow from 1.3 million to 1.5 million active troops and establish new formations along NATO’s borders.
**A Shift in Military Build-up**
According to a recent Danish intelligence assessment, Russia’s rearmament changed character from reconstruction to an intensified military build-up in 2024. The goal is to be able “to fight on an equal footing with NATO forces.” This shift has significant implications for the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are now facing increased security risks.
**A New Military Threat**
Russian officials warn that a ceasefire in Ukraine could allow Moscow to quickly redeploy and reinforce its forces on NATO’s northeastern flank. This would sharply raise security concerns for the Baltic states. Meanwhile, Ukrainian estimates suggest that Russia is manufacturing more than 1,400 Iskander ballistic missiles and 500 Kh-101 cruise missiles annually.
**Divergent Expert Opinions**
Military experts are divided on when Russia might pose a direct threat to NATO. American intelligence suggests Russia could reconstitute its army “during the next decade,” while Norwegian estimates range from five to ten years “at the earliest.” Ukrainian assessments suggest five to seven years, and German estimates range from five to eight years.
**Estonia’s Defense Minister Warns of Quick Redeployment**
Estonia’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, warns that Russia could quickly redeploy forces currently fighting in Ukraine. He notes that this would significantly change the force posture of the Russian army close to Estonia and pose a significant threat to the region.
**Critics Doubt Russia’s Capabilities**
Critics argue that Russia’s military expansion plans may be more show than substance. John Foreman, Britain’s former defense attaché in Moscow, describes new formations like the 44th Army Corps as “Potemkin units.” He doubts Russia could extricate itself from Ukraine, reform its army, and “march on Warsaw,” calling such scenarios “an absolute fantasy.”
**Economic Constraints Limit Military Capabilities**
Despite high spending on defense (6.7% of GDP), economic constraints limit Russia’s military capabilities. The addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO has also worsened Russia’s strategic position in northern Europe.
**Limited Military Actions Possible**
Lithuanian intelligence suggests that Russia might focus on limited military actions, rather than a large-scale conventional war against NATO. Sweden’s intelligence agency warns that while chances of a major war remain low, a “limited armed attack” against a Baltic state or NATO ships is entirely possible.
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