**Russia’s Missile Strikes Test Europe’s Ability to Support Ukraine**
As Russia continues its missile and drone strikes across the country, the eyes of the world are on Europe’s capacity to support Ukraine. The future of US military aid is becoming increasingly uncertain, leaving Ukraine to rely heavily on European assistance.
Despite a persistent shortage, experts say Ukraine should have enough air defense missiles to avoid the worst of the attacks. However, much depends on the intensity of Russian campaigns and whether Europe can provide sufficient backup. “I think what the Russians are doing now is testing how deep the pockets are and how large the inventories are on the Ukrainian and European side,” said Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen.
The ability to bolster air defense production in Europe and continue buying interceptors from the US will be crucial for Ukraine. Experts stress that this process has been too slow since 2022 and is still not happening at the desired pace. “If the Russians are able to continue a very high operational tempo, it would be more difficult” for Ukraine, said Professor Rasmussen.
Ukraine’s increasing reliance on Europe comes as US President Donald Trump pushes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The uncertainty surrounding US military aid and intelligence sharing is growing, with questions raised about Moscow’s intent behind recent deadly attacks.
**Missile Shortage Forces Rationing**
Ukraine faces a shortage of air defense missiles, forcing the country to ration resources even as Russia deploys more ballistic missiles. While Ukraine has received various air defense systems since the war began, only the PAC-3 Patriot missiles offer a reliable shield from Russian ballistic missiles due to their speed.
The Düsseldorf-based defense company Rheinmetall announced talks with US Lockheed Martin to create a joint venture to produce up to 10,000 missiles, including PAC-3 Patriots. This move could help bridge the shortage gap for Ukraine.
**US Willingness to Support Europe**
Experts believe that even if the US shuts off military aid to Ukraine again, as it did in February after an Oval Office clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Europeans will still produce some air defense systems. However, what Ukrainians want is more.
The US has received around 1,900 PAC-3 Patriot missiles and produces about 20 a month, said Luigi Scazzieri, a senior policy analyst for defense at the European Union Institute for Security Studies. Another key question is whether the US will greenlight Europe to hand over US interceptors produced in Europe to Ukraine.
“That could be a significant source of supply,” said Scazzieri, noting that earlier this month the US allowed Germany to transfer Patriots to Ukraine. This is a priority area for Europe both because of Ukraine’s urgent needs and because it recognizes a gap in European defenses.
As Russia continues its missile strikes, the world watches as Europe’s capacity to support Ukraine is put to the test. Will they be able to provide sufficient backup, or will Ukraine face even greater challenges? Only time will tell.
