Russia’s seizure of Velyka Novosilka is a significant development in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The village, which was previously occupied by Ukrainian forces, has been recaptured by Russian troops, with Russia now threatening to advance further. This could have implications for the situation in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a result of Russia’s continued push into Ukraine, despite the cost of manpower and resources. Ukrainian forces had launched a counteroffensive in 2023 but were unable to hold onto the village. Now, with Russia reclaiming all the villages and threatening to advance further, the situation on the ground has changed dramatically.
Military analysts have pointed out that holding onto Velyka Novosilka makes sense for Russia as it exhausts Ukrainian resources that could be used elsewhere. The sharp contrast in manpower leverage has allowed Moscow to gradually advance despite the cost.
The tactics employed by Russian troops remain unchanged, relying on the continuous deployment of small groups of soldiers until enough troops are gathered to properly advance on a nearby Ukrainian position. This has led to Ukrainian forces being encircled and struggling to contain the Russian advance.
Some have argued that the situation in Velyka Novosilka is a self-inflicted wound caused by Ukrainian mismanagement, with top military leadership unable or unwilling to make difficult decisions such as withdrawing earlier to prevent encirclements. Others have pointed out that the Russian advance had slowed down for the past two months, possibly due to winter weather conditions or resource exhaustion.
The recapture of Velyka Novosilka is a significant development in the conflict and raises questions about Ukraine’s strategy and preparedness.
