The article discusses the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the likelihood of a peaceful resolution. Military analyst Rob Lee suggests that for the war to end, Russia must be prevented from advancing on the battlefield, which would require significant aid to Ukraine. Despite negotiations between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian officials, Lee believes the war is likely to continue.
Lee points out that Russia has not achieved its minimum objectives in the war, including taking control of all four contested oblasts. He estimates that it’s unlikely for Russia to take all of Donetsk Oblast this year, unless there’s a catastrophic breakdown of Ukrainian forces. This gap between Russian demands and Ukrainian willingness to accept a ceasefire makes peace negotiations challenging.
Lee also highlights the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine, as they seek to prevent future threats from Russia. He suggests that if the Trump administration offers concessions outside of Ukraine, such as changes to European security architecture, it could potentially lead to a negotiated peace. However, Lee believes this is unlikely and that the war will continue.
The article concludes by emphasizing the need for continued U.S. aid to Ukraine in order to prevent Russian advances and create an environment conducive to negotiations.
