**Russia and Ukraine Play Game of Diplomacy to Avoid Being Blamed for Peace Talks Failure**
In a surprise move, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Friday that he is ready to begin direct peace talks with Ukraine on May 15. This comes after months of rejection from both sides, with Ukraine saying it cannot negotiate with a counterpart that constantly breaks agreements.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the news and said his country is “ready for all options.” However, the statements by Moscow and Kyiv have caught the attention of US President Donald Trump, who has been critical of the White House’s inability to end the war against Ukraine in “24 hours.”
**A Game of Tennis**
Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, compared the peace talks process to a game of tennis. “The two sides knocking the ball back and forth,” he said. “And we have to see where the ball ends.” This means that the US may blame whichever side it views as interfering with the peace-making efforts.
**Concerns Over US Exit**
Trump’s threats in April to walk away from the peace process if there is no progress in the near future have kept Ukraine and Europe on alert. Kyiv has warned that a potential US exit would be “very dangerous.” Concerns persist over the US potentially halting its military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine if the exit will take place.
**Uncertainties Remain**
The possibility of a Putin-Zelensky meeting in Istanbul is still uncertain, including whether Putin would show up. However, it is considered a progress by Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security at the Razumkov Center. Putin could list last-minute demands for his attendance and then blame Ukraine for not agreeing to them.
**Both Sides Afraid of US Walking Away**
Both Russia and Ukraine are “definitely” afraid of the US walking away from the peace talks, with Ukraine adjusting its objectives in war, such as Zelensky ruling out potentially liberating Crimea through military means and opening up to an unconditional ceasefire. Russia is also forced to play along, showing readiness for talks.
**Russia’s Motivations**
Elina Beketova, a non-resident fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)’s Democratic Resilience Program, argued that Russia would benefit more than Ukraine if the US withdraws from the peace talks procedure. “Russia would likely interpret this as a green light to continue its attacks,” she said.
**Need for Mechanism Backed by Real Power**
Beketova reiterated the need for a mechanism “backed by real power and unity” that would force Russia to end its war. She stressed that continued leadership from both Europe and the US is essential. “Russia keeps talking about peace, but its actions tell a very different story,” she said.
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