**Kyiv’s Air Defense Under Increasing Pressure Amid Missile Shortage**
The skies above Ukraine are becoming increasingly fragile, as the country faces a critical shortage of air defense missiles. The pressure on Kyiv is mounting, with Russia scaling up its aerial attacks and combining ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
According to sources within the Ukrainian Air Force, cities across the country – including Kyiv – are facing a severe shortage of air defense missiles. This comes as Russia has changed its tactics, targeting central Ukraine with ballistic missiles such as Iskanders and upgraded North Korean variants. “That’s an entirely different level of threat,” said Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, a Ukrainian aviation expert.
Kyiv remains the most protected city in Ukraine, thanks to the presence of Western-provided air defense systems like the US-made Patriot. The Patriots have been a game-changer for Ukraine, allowing its Air Force to shoot down aerial targets with greater ease. However, the country currently has only eight operational Patriot systems – two of which are not currently in service.
To compound the problem, there is a worldwide shortage of air defense missiles due to their high cost and complicated production process. Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the PAC-3 interceptors used by Ukraine’s Patriots, can produce only about 500 missiles per year. Kostiantyn Kryvolap, another Ukrainian aviation expert, stressed that at least two Patriot missiles are needed to intercept a ballistic missile with a “more or less high probability.”
**The Struggle for Kyiv**
The situation in Kyiv is particularly dire. The city would ideally require at least three Patriot systems to defend itself against Russian ballistic and cruise missiles, according to Kryvolap. However, the equipment and ammunition are limited in number, forcing Ukraine to conserve them even when Kyiv is under heavy attack.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly asked Western allies for more Patriots and ammunition, but details about the remaining missile stock remain unknown due to operational security concerns. Kryvolap emphasized that the American manufacturer Lockheed Martin can only produce about 500 PAC-3 interceptors per year, which would not be sufficient even if all the produced ammunition were allocated to Ukraine.
**A Prolonged and Sustained Missile Campaign**
Polish military analyst Konrad Myzyka expects Kyiv’s interception rate of ballistic missiles to decrease if Russia manages to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses. This could lead to a significant increase in civilian lives lost. The situation is made even more dire by the fact that Russia has been constantly attempting to improve its ballistic missile capabilities.
The pressure on Ukraine’s air defense capability is not just internal, but also external. Analysts warn that if the US were to cut off its military aid to Kyiv again – which could happen “in a matter of weeks” – Ukraine’s air defense would likely be the first to suffer.
**Conclusion**
Kyiv’s air defense is under increasing pressure amid a critical shortage of missiles. The situation is compounded by Russia’s changing tactics and the worldwide shortage of air defense equipment. As the threat level rises, it becomes increasingly clear that the skies above Ukraine are becoming increasingly fragile. The people of Kyiv can only hope that their air defenses hold out against the onslaught of Russian ballistic missiles.
