**Russian Ambitions in Sumy Unlikely to Succeed, Says ISW**
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely staged a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20th to justify plans to seize Sumy City and annex Sumy Oblast. However, despite this claim, ISW says Russian forces are unlikely to capture the city soon.
**Putin’s Meeting: A Staged Justification**
According to ISW, Putin held a meeting with municipal leaders in Kursk Oblast on May 20th. During the meeting, one of the officials, Pavel Zolotarev, asked Putin to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast. Putin responded by asking how many kilometers deep this zone should be. Zolotarev then suggested that Russia should seize “at least Sumy City” and hinted that “Russia should be bigger.” This exchange has been seen as an attempt by Putin to justify renewed Russian efforts to seize Sumy City.
**Kremlin’s Efforts to Present Putin as a Capable Leader**
ISW believes that this meeting is part of broader Kremlin efforts to present Putin as a responsive and capable wartime leader. The think tank also pointed out recent reports from Western and Ukrainian sources that members of the Russian delegation at the Istanbul talks threatened to seize Sumy Oblast to form a “security zone.”
**Ukrainian Forces Maintain Presence in Kursk Oblast**
Despite Russia’s claims, Ukrainian forces reportedly maintain a limited presence inside Kursk Oblast, adjacent to Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on May 21st that active combat operations are still underway in the oblast.
**Russian Military Limitations in Sumy**
ISW has assessed that Russia is “highly unlikely” to be able to seize Sumy City in the near- to medium-term. The think tank emphasized that Russian forces have struggled to capture even smaller Ukrainian towns in the last three years. In fact, Russia’s last major city capture occurred in July 2022, when it took Lysychansk after a prolonged campaign.
**Commentary**
The ISW report highlights the complexities of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. While Russia continues to make claims about seizing Ukrainian territory, its military limitations have been evident in recent years. The fact that Russian forces have struggled to capture even smaller settlements suggests that taking Sumy City would be a significant challenge.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s ability to maintain a presence inside Kursk Oblast contradicts Moscow’s assertion that Ukrainian forces have been fully expelled from Russian territory. This demonstrates the ongoing nature of the conflict and the need for continued vigilance on both sides.
**Analysis**
The ISW report provides valuable insight into the dynamics of the Russo-Ukrainian war. While Putin may be attempting to present himself as a capable wartime leader, his military limitations suggest that Russia’s territorial ambitions are unlikely to succeed in the near term.
In fact, Ukraine’s ability to maintain its presence inside Kursk Oblast suggests that Russian forces may not have the capacity to capture Sumy City at all. This would be a significant blow to Putin’s claims and could potentially undermine his efforts to justify further Russian aggression.
Ultimately, the ISW report highlights the need for continued international scrutiny of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. As the conflict continues to unfold, it is essential that we remain vigilant and informed about the complexities on the ground.
Read More @ euromaidanpress.com
