**Russian Forces Push Ahead in Donetsk Oblast, But Summer Priorities Remain Unclear**
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russian forces are continuing to expand their salient northeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Toretsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. However, it remains uncertain whether Russia will prioritize advancing on Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka this summer.
According to ISW, Russian forces have been pushing to capture the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast for months, with a focus on Pokrovsk and other Ukrainian strongholds. While they have made some gains around Myrolyubivka and Mykhailivka, their advances have mostly stalled or even reversed in areas where Ukrainian troops counterattack and reclaim their lost positions.
**Russian Gains Around Myroliubivka**
ISW has confirmed via geolocated footage that Russia captured the settlements of Myroliubivka and Mykhailivka. Russian milbloggers also reported gains around both settlements, with Russia’s Ministry of Defense crediting the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade for the advance. The brigade had been inactive since March near Kurakhove but is now active near Pokrovsk.
**Ukrainian Positions Resist at Yelyzavetivka**
Despite Russian efforts to push forward, Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in and around Yelyzavetivka, hindering Russian attempts to advance toward Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. Russian milbloggers confirmed the ongoing Ukrainian presence north of Yelyzavetivka.
**Renewed Focus on Pokrovsk**
Russian forces have intensified attacks northeast and east of Pokrovsk, reversing their earlier withdrawal in 2024. Ukrainian officials reported fresh Russian reinforcements in this sector. ISW noted that the redeployment of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade from Kurakhove to near Malynivka indicates a renewed Russian focus on seizing Pokrovsk.
**Offensive Toward Kostiantynivka Intensifies**
Simultaneously, Russian forces continue pushing toward Kostiantynivka. According to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, they are attacking along the T-0504 highway and from Stara Mykolaivka toward Stepanivka, Yablunivka, and Romanivka.
**Uncertainty Over Summer Priorities**
ISW assesses that Russia is unlikely to have the manpower, materiel, or operational capacity to simultaneously execute an envelopment of Pokrovsk and a major offensive toward Kostiantynivka. Recent Ukrainian estimates suggest that Russia lacks the reserves for sustained dual-axis operations, and without clear prioritization between the two objectives, Russia risks overextension and operational failure.
**Conclusion**
In conclusion, while Russian forces continue to make gains in Donetsk Oblast, it remains uncertain whether they will prioritize advancing on Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka this summer. ISW concludes that Moscow must balance its campaigns in various sectors, including Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kupiansk, Lyman, and Borova.
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