**Russia Prepares for Long War with Ukraine and Possible NATO Confrontation**
Russian President Vladimir Putin has initiated a new phase of government discussions on the State Rearmament Program for 2027-2036. The program focuses on advancing air defense, space systems, drone capabilities, and robotic technologies.
According to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this overhaul is part of Russia’s preparation for a prolonged war with Ukraine and potential future conflict with NATO. This comes amid Russia’s major escalation of ground assaults and air attacks in Ukraine.
During the meeting, Putin claimed that Russia’s air defense systems had intercepted over 80,000 aerial targets since February 2022. He emphasized the need for a “universal air defense system” that can counter all types of projectiles. Putin also highlighted the importance of advanced digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) to be deeply embedded in Russian military systems.
The Kremlin is investing in modernizing the Russian Navy and rebuilding the Black Sea Fleet, which has suffered heavy losses due to Ukrainian attacks. However, ISW notes that Russia’s ability to finance this vast rearmament remains unclear. The country’s defense industrial base had struggled with fulfilling both domestic and foreign military contracts before Western sanctions were imposed.
**Oil Revenues May Factor into Strategy**
ISW suggests that rising oil prices could help Russia finance some of its military goals if those prices remain elevated over the medium- to long-term. This comes as Israeli strikes against Iran have partly triggered a rise in oil prices, potentially benefiting Russia’s war efforts.
The think tank concludes that the Kremlin is using battlefield lessons from its war in Ukraine to inform adaptations of Russia’s military and prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war against Ukraine and a potential confrontation with NATO.
**Commentary**
This development highlights Russia’s determination to continue its aggressive posture towards Ukraine and potentially challenge NATO. The focus on air defense, space systems, drone capabilities, and robotic technologies suggests that Putin is prioritizing modernization and adaptation in the face of ongoing conflict.
The reliance on oil revenues to finance military goals raises concerns about Russia’s long-term economic viability in supporting a prolonged war effort. However, if oil prices remain elevated, this could potentially alleviate some financial constraints for Russia’s military ambitions.
Ultimately, this development underscores the need for continued vigilance and cooperation between Ukraine, NATO, and other international partners to address these emerging security challenges.
