**Kadyrov’s Resignation Could Unravel Putin’s Control of Caucasus**
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has once again expressed his desire to step down, sparking concerns about the stability of the North Caucasus region. According to the Institute for the Study of War, if approved, Kadyrov’s resignation could expose vulnerabilities in President Vladimir Putin’s grip on the area.
While Kadyrov claims that his departure depends solely on Putin’s decision, reports suggest a more complex situation is unfolding. The Chechen leader has made similar statements before, only to walk them back later, leaving observers skeptical about his true intentions. Some sources even claim that Kadyrov’s relationship with Putin may be fraying, citing concerns over the Chechen leader’s uncoordinated dealings with Middle Eastern monarchies.
**Fading Relationship**
Despite Kadyrov’s public declarations of loyalty, reports indicate that his relationship with Putin is crumbling. The Russian investigative outlet Vazhnye Istorii cited FSB sources in March, suggesting that Putin had grown wary of Kadyrov’s actions. However, other sources, including Novaya Gazeta, argue that Kadyrov remains one of Putin’s key envoys in the region, involved in high-stakes diplomacy related to Russian military interests in Syria.
**Succession Speculation**
Speculation about succession has intensified amid reports that Kadyrov has largely withdrawn from active public life since February 2025, focusing instead on medical treatment. His eldest daughter, Aishat Kadyrova, once a rising political figure in Chechnya, resigned suddenly in early February and reportedly traveled to the UAE to explore business opportunities for the family. Her departure coincided with the quiet withdrawal of her sisters, Khutmat and Khadizhat, from civil service roles, further fueling speculation of a transition behind closed doors.
**A 17-Year-Old Heir?**
The likeliest successor appears to be 17-year-old Adam Kadyrov, whom Ramzan has publicly positioned as his heir despite his youth and controversial public image. Notably, Adam drew national attention in 2023 for assaulting a detainee accused of burning a Quran, an act that Ramzan himself celebrated. Since then, Adam has received preferential treatment, official responsibilities, and symbolic elevation within Chechnya’s leadership circles.
**A Dangerous Vacuum?**
The Institute for the Study of War warns that Kadyrov’s departure, especially without a clear and accepted successor, could create a dangerous vacuum in the North Caucasus. As a power broker with personal loyalty networks and brutal enforcement mechanisms, Kadyrov has kept a lid on separatist sentiment and interethnic unrest for two decades. His absence could embolden rivals or insurgent actors, just as Russia remains mired in its war against Ukraine.
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