**Russia’s Deadliest Year in Ukraine: 45,287 Soldiers Killed**
The year 2024 was the deadliest for Russian forces since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine. According to a recent analysis by the BBC Russian Service, at least 45,287 people were killed, almost three times more than in the first year of the invasion.
**A Month-on-Month Increase in Losses**
Last year saw a month-on-month increase in the death toll as the front line slowly edged forward. This allowed researchers to estimate that Russia lost at least 27 lives for every square kilometre of Ukrainian territory captured. The true number of deaths is likely higher, with military experts estimating that the current figure may cover between 45% and 65% of actual losses.
**The Cost of Progress**
The heaviest overall losses occurred during a slow Russian advance in the east between September and November 2024. According to leading US military analyst Michael Kofman, tactics employed by Russian forces increased overall casualties relative to terrain gained. The cost of this advance was at least 11,678 Russian military deaths.
**Capturing Territory at a High Cost**
Russian forces captured 2,356 square kilometres of Ukraine between September and November 2024. However, Ukrainian forces did not collapse, despite the heavy losses. The actual number of casualties is likely higher than reported, with estimates suggesting that for each square kilometre captured, 27 Russian soldiers were killed.
**Recruitment Efforts**
Russia has found ways to replenish its depleted forces through increased recruitment efforts. One-time payments to soldiers signing new contracts were increased in three Russian regions, and combat salaries for volunteer soldiers are five to seven times higher than the average wage in most regions.
**Volunteers Become Fastest-Growing Category of Casualties**
Volunteers have become the fastest-growing category of casualties in our calculations, making up a quarter of those identified. Thousands of volunteers who signed contracts with the Ministry of Defence were sent to the front lines only 10-14 days later, which experts say will have dramatically reduced their chances of survival.
**Calculating Deaths: A Challenge**
Calculating deaths from open source data is always incomplete, as the bodies of a significant number of soldiers killed in the past months may still be on the battlefield. The true death toll for Russian forces increases significantly if you include those who fought against Ukraine as part of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.
**The Real Toll**
An assessment of obituaries and reports of searches for fighters who have lost contact suggests between 21,000 and 23,500 people may have been killed by September 2024. This would bring the total number of fatalities to 185,000 to 260,700 military personnel.
**A Grim Legacy**
The legacy of this conflict is grim indeed. As Russia continues to fight in Ukraine, the human cost will only continue to mount.
