**Ukraine’s Battlefield Situation Not Severe Enough for Forced Peace Deal, Experts Say**
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been marked by small-scale assaults across the entire front line. However, according to military analysts and soldiers, the situation on the battlefield is nowhere near bad enough for Ukraine to be forced into an unfavorable peace deal.
Since the start of Russia’s spring offensive in early April, Moscow has made incremental gains in multiple sectors at a high cost. Despite this, achieving a breakthrough seems unlikely. The U.S., meanwhile, has been trying to force Ukraine into a rushed peace to end the war at all costs, with Washington potentially recognizing Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea among the hard-hitting concessions.
**Ukraine Can Continue Fighting, Experts Claim**
Contrary to claims by some that Ukraine is in a dire situation, experts argue that the country can continue fighting. “Ukraine’s position is nowhere near bad enough that they would need to make such concessions, especially when Russia isn’t making any actual concessions,” said Jakub Janovsky, a Prague-based military analyst at the Oryx open-source project tracking Ukrainian and Russian equipment losses.
Janovsky pointed out that while Russia wages costly assaults in Donetsk Oblast and across the southern front, its troops appear to be struggling to keep advancing. Ukraine has gotten better at countering these attacks, including with the use of cheap first-person-view (FPV) drones and mines.
**Russia’s Strategy Not Viable**
The Russian strategy of “creeping one kilometer after another” in a country as large as Ukraine is not viable, according to Janovsky. Based on open-source footage of Russian assaults thus far in the spring offensive, Janovsky assessed that the assaults that rely on mechanized and motorized units and “loads of infantry” are not going well.
**Ukraine’s Military Holding Strong**
Despite Russia’s efforts, the Ukrainian military has managed to stabilize the front line. According to experts who spoke with the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine can continue fighting without making significant concessions. Oleksandr Spytsin, a former defense minister, argued that no matter the front-line situation, the de jure recognition of Crimea is “certainly unreasonable.”
**Security Guarantees Essential**
Former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk stressed that security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe are essential for Ukraine to accept any peace deal. “You can only formally accept territorial losses once, you cannot get them back again,” Zagorodnyuk said.
Lawmaker Yehor Cherniev agreed that all partners have been informed about Ukraine’s red lines despite the U.S. reportedly considering recognizing Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. “We have nowhere to retreat, we will not sign a surrender,” Cherniev said.
**Experts Agree: Front Line Situation Not Dire**
John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, agreed that the overall front-line situation is “not great, but not dire.” Even if the U.S. were to pull out its military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine again, Hardie believes that a front-line collapse is unlikely.
Hardie also pointed out that Russia’s advances in its spring offensive may speed up with time despite its infantry currently being “very low quality.” However, Ukraine’s prepared defense and precision pose a formidable challenge for the Russian attackers.
