**Russia’s Drone Arsenal Set to Expand Significantly**
In a concerning development for Ukraine, Russia is gearing up to deploy more than 500 long-range drones in a single attack, according to a source within the Ukrainian military intelligence. This significant escalation comes as Moscow ramps up drone production and builds new launch sites.
The Ukrainian military has identified 12-15 new launch sites being constructed or already operational. Previously, Russian drone launches had relied on just five sites: Kursk, Yeysk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai, and two sites in occupied Crimea. With the new launch sites online, Russia will be able to launch a record-breaking number of drones at Ukraine.
Currently, Russian drone swarms have topped out at 472 units, but with increased production and new launch sites, this number is expected to surpass 500. The Ukrainian military intelligence source attributed this increase to Russia’s ability to produce up to 70 Geran-type drones per day, a significant jump from the reported 21 units per day in 2023.
**Understanding Russia’s Drone Arsenal**
Russia’s drone production consists of three main types: Shaheds (imported from Iran), Gerans (direct copies of Shaheds), and Garpiya-A1s (using Chinese parts). The source did not provide information on the number of Shaheds imported from Iran or the production numbers for Garpiya-A1s. Additionally, “dummy drones” or Gerbers are also being used, which resemble Shaheds but do not carry explosives.
These drones serve as decoys to distract Ukrainian radar and anti-aircraft fire, making up roughly half of the drones sent into Ukraine in a given attack. The effectiveness of these drone launches has increased over the past six months due to modifications made to the drones themselves and their deployment strategies.
**Implications for Ukraine**
The significant expansion of Russia’s drone arsenal poses a significant threat to Ukraine. The increasing number of new Russian-made deep-strike drones equipped with jet engines will allow them to carry heavier payloads at higher speeds and altitudes, making them more effective in their attacks.
In response to this escalation, Ukraine plans to produce 4.5 million first-person view (FPV) drones in 2025, a significant increase from the 1.5 million produced in 2024. This effort aims to counter Russia’s drone advantage and provide a more robust defense against these threats.
As tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate, it remains to be seen how effective these measures will be in countering the increased threat posed by Moscow’s expanded drone arsenal.
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