**EU Must Prepare for Reduced US Military Involvement in European Defense**
The European Union is facing a significant challenge as it prepares for reduced US military involvement in European defense. European Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has emphasized the need for Europe to become more self-sufficient in its defense capabilities. In an interview with LRT.lt, Kubilius stated that Russia lacks the military strength often attributed to it and will not achieve victory in Ukraine.
**Russia’s Military Strength Overhyped**
Kubilius dismissed the notion that Russia is a powerful military force, saying “Russia is not as powerful as it is sometimes thought to be, and I do not see any evidence of Russia’s great power.” He also praised Ukraine for its resilience over three years of war. This assessment reflects a growing trend among European leaders to reassess their understanding of Russian military capabilities.
**European Defense Spending Plans**
The European Union has set aside €800 billion for defense capabilities, but member states will need to borrow most of this money themselves. Kubilius acknowledged that convincing countries already facing high debt levels to invest in defense will be a challenge. “This is a question of politicians and leaders taking responsibility,” he said. “They have to find ways of convincing their electorate that there is a real need to invest in defence.”
**EU Forces Must Be Prepared to Hold Defensive Positions**
Kubilius emphasized the importance of European forces being capable of holding defensive positions for approximately ten days before NATO reinforcements arrive. This reflects a shift towards greater self-reliance and preparedness among European militaries.
**US Presence in European Defense Likely to Decrease**
The American presence in European defense is likely to become smaller as the US focuses more on the Indo-Pacific region. Kubilius stated that Europe should not rely solely on the US for protection, saying “450 million Europeans should not be begging 340 million Americans to protect Europe from 140 million Russians who cannot take on 38 million Ukrainians.”
**Reducing Dependence on US Military Aid**
Kubilius revealed that only 20% of European military acquisitions come from European industry, while over 65% originate from the United States. He emphasized the need for Europe to reduce its dependence on US military aid and become more self-sufficient in its defense capabilities.
**Distinguishing Between Russia and China**
Kubilius distinguished between Russia and China, describing Russia as an aggressive state that seeks to expand its territory, while China is an authoritarian state but not necessarily aggressive. He noted that there are significant differences between the two countries’ geopolitical goals and ambitions.
**Western Support for Ukraine**
The Commissioner revealed details about Western support for Ukraine, stating that America has provided €60 billion in military aid over three years, while the European Union contributed about €50 billion. Including Britain and Norway, European support also reaches approximately €60 billion. Kubilius characterized this spending level as modest relative to economic output.
**EU Must Demonstrate Clarity Amid Uncertainty**
Kubilius emphasized the need for European leadership to demonstrate clarity amid uncertainty about American policy directions. He noted that Europe must show much clearer leadership in the face of confusion caused by the new American administration.
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