**Russian Drone Strikes on Ukraine Might Decrease Due to Middle East Conflict, Estonian Intel Say**
A recent surge in Russian drone strikes across Ukraine might be slowing down due to a decline in Iran’s Shahed production capabilities, according to Estonian military intelligence commander Ants Kiviselg. This development comes as Russia has been ramping up its use of drones, with nearly 500 launched overnight on June 9.
**Iran’s Key Role in Russia’s Drone Campaign**
Kiviselg noted that while Russia has managed to localize and transfer the production of Shahed and Geran-type drones to Russia, some critical nodes for drone production continue to come from Iran. The Iranian government has been a key ally to Moscow, providing thousands of Shahed “kamikaze” drones for its war against Ukraine.
**Israeli Strikes on Iranian Facilities**
Recent Israeli air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities have targeted and destroyed a Geran-type drone factory in Isfahan. Ukrainian forces have also been attacking the Russian plant in Alabuga in Tatarstan, which has led to concerns that Russia might not be able to maintain its drone production capabilities.
**Consequences for Ukraine**
The decline in Iranian Shahed production could lead to a decrease in Russian drone strikes on Ukraine. However, Estonian intelligence is convinced that Moscow is planning steps to not only maintain but also increase its drone production. This would allow Russia to continue its use of drones as a means of overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with massive swarms.
**Ukraine’s Response**
In response to the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has brought home another group of prisoners of war released from Russian captivity. The country has also increased its investment in drone capabilities and more than doubled its production of long-range drones in 2024 compared to the previous year.
**Escalating Conflict**
The situation remains volatile, with Russia launching 86 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 34 drones, while 36 disappeared from radars or were intercepted by electronic warfare. The conflict continues to escalate, with both sides suffering losses.
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