**Russia’s Ballistic Missile Production Soars**
According to the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), Russia has significantly increased its production of ballistic missiles over the past year. The data, shared with the Kyiv Independent, shows that Moscow is now producing 60-70 Iskander-Ms and 10-15 hypersonic Kinzhals per month.
This represents a substantial increase from the reported numbers in May and April last year, when Russia was producing around 40 Iskanders and 4-5 Kinzhals. At the lower end of the estimated range, this is an increase of 66.67%, while at the higher end, it’s a staggering 88.89%.
The rise in ballistic missile production is a cause for concern in Ukraine, as it coincides with dwindling stockpiles of air defense missiles, particularly the US-made Patriots. The HUR figures show that Russia has amassed a significant arsenal of “almost 600” Iskanders and over 100 Kinzhals.
This development comes despite claims by Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov in December 2022 that Russia was running low on Iskander ballistic missiles. However, HUR spokesperson Andriy Yusov noted that production had increased to around 40-50 Iskanders per month by December last year.
**Russia’s Production Outpaces Western Countermeasures**
The expanded production of ballistic missiles poses a significant challenge for Ukraine and the West. Russia’s stockpile now outnumbers the total production of PAC-3 MSE missiles, which are used in Patriot air defense systems. These systems are the preferred anti-ballistic defenses for much of Europe.
Moreover, Russia has reportedly upgraded its Iskanders with radar decoys and less predictable flight paths, making them harder to intercept even with advanced Western systems like SAMP/T and IRIS-T.
The situation is further complicated by the reported stockpiling of 60 North Korean KN-23s, which are similar to the Iskander-Ms but carry a more powerful one-ton warhead.
**Cruise Missile Production Also Rises**
Russia’s production of cruise missiles has also continued to grow. According to HUR estimates, Russia can produce 20-30 Iskander-Ks, 60-70 X-101s, 25-30 Kalibrs, up to 10 X-32s, and 20-30 Onyx and Zircon anti-ship missiles.
A recent Ukrainian attack on Russian airfields may have restricted Russia’s ability to launch some of these cruise missiles. However, the overall trend suggests that Russia remains a significant threat in terms of missile production.
**Ukraine Responds**
In response to Russia’s increased production, Ukraine has also built up its own capabilities in producing cruise and ballistic missiles. However, large-scale production is dependent on major industrial zones that often fall victim to Russian air strikes.
As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how effectively Ukraine and the West can counter Russia’s expanded missile production.
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