**Poland’s Conservative Leader Karol Nawrocki Wins Presidential Election**
In a closely contested runoff, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki has been declared the winner of Poland’s 2025 presidential election. With 50.89% of the vote, Nawrocki secured the presidency against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 49.11%. The result marks a significant shift in Polish politics and has consequences for both domestic and international affairs.
**A Divided Country**
Poland was initially expected to head towards a liberal government after the 2023 parliamentary elections saw the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party lose control of the parliament for the first time since 2015. However, with support from nationalist and far-right voters, PiS is now in a position to hit back.
The Polish president holds limited executive power but has veto power that can paralyze the centrist agenda of the ruling coalition. Nawrocki pledged to use this veto to block many of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reforms and key decisions.
**Uncertain Ukraine-Polish Relations**
Ukrainians have reacted with cautious concern to Nawrocki’s victory, with President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly congratulating him on his win. However, there are few reasons for optimism about a significant change in Poland’s relationship with Kyiv.
With Poland hosting over a million Ukrainian refugees displaced by the war, Ukraine was one of the dominant topics throughout the campaign. Nawrocki drew criticism for stoking anxiety over Ukrainian refugees and echoing far-right concerns about migration, rising living costs, and security.
As president, Nawrocki will become commander-in-chief of the armed forces and play a key role in shaping foreign policy, especially toward countries to the east. His opposition to Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU has raised serious concerns in Kyiv.
**A More Transactional Phase**
Nawrocki’s presidency is likely to open a more transactional phase in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Unlike other Euroskeptic leaders in Central Europe, such as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico or Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Nawrocki does not express pro-Russian views but has repeatedly accused Zelensky of taking advantage of allies.
His victory may also prove troublesome for the Polish government, which seeks to play an important role in a recently formed informal coalition aimed at counterbalancing Trump’s policy on Ukraine.
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