The article discusses a recent report by JPMorgan that suggests Ukraine’s chances of success in its reconstruction efforts are equivalent to a coin flip. The report warns that if Ukraine fails, Russia will exploit the situation and regain control over Ukraine. However, the author argues that this assessment is flawed and that Russia is actually under unsustainable pressure.
The article points out that Russia has been burning through domestic resources at an unprecedented rate, while Ukraine has built permanent institutional ties with the West. Each year of continued conflict accelerates Russia’s technological lag, demographic decline, and economic isolation, while strengthening Ukraine’s Western integration.
The author also notes that the real risk is not that JPMorgan’s assessment becomes reality, but rather that it influences concrete decisions, such as insurance premiums for Ukrainian operations or investment decisions by private equity firms. This could lead to a self-defeating prophecy if JPMorgan fails to recognize its analytical blind spot and instead bet against Ukrainian agency.
The article concludes that the question is not whether Ukraine will follow Georgia’s path, but rather whether JPMorgan will recognize their blind spot before it becomes a problem.
