**Nato Warns of Possible Russian Attack within Four Years**
Germany’s chief of defence, General Carsten Breuer, has sounded the alarm on a potential attack from Russia, stating that Nato members need to prepare for such an eventuality by 2029 at the latest. According to Gen Breuer, Russia is producing hundreds of tanks every year, many of which could be used to launch an attack on Nato’s Baltic state members.
Speaking at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore, a defence summit organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, Gen Breuer emphasized that Nato faces “a very serious threat” from Russia. He pointed out that while not all Russian military production is aimed at Ukraine, a significant portion is being stockpiled for potential use against the Western alliance.
Gen Breuer cited figures of 1,500 main battle tanks and four million rounds of artillery munition produced by Russia in 2024, stating that this is part of a larger build-up of military stocks facing the West. The Suwalki Gap, an area bordering Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Belarus, was identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to a potential Russian attack.
The general’s comments come ahead of a Nato summit in The Hague where defence budgets are expected to be discussed among other topics. Gen Breuer emphasized that Nato remains unified despite differences of opinion expressed by Hungary and Slovakia over their closer relations with Moscow.
However, questions remain about whether this is a case of ambition outpacing reality. It will take years for Europe’s military industrial base to crank up to speed to match anywhere near the scale of weaponry that Russia is churning out. The US has also been drawing down its defence commitments to Europe to focus on the Indo-Pacific.
**The Growing Threat**
Gen Breuer’s warning highlights the growing threat posed by Russia, particularly in the region of the Suwalki Gap. This area is highly exposed and vulnerable to a potential Russian attack. Estonia has likened the situation to being close to a wildfire, where they “feel the heat, see the flames and smell the smoke”. In contrast, Germany sees only a little bit of smoke on the horizon.
The general also pointed out that Russia views the Ukraine war as part of a larger continuum with Nato, stating that Moscow is trying to find ways into Western defence lines. This has led to recent attacks on undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, cyber attacks on European public transport, and unidentified drones spotted over German power stations.
**Nato’s Unity**
Despite growing tensions between some Nato members, such as Hungary and Slovakia, and Russia, Gen Breuer insisted that the alliance remains healthy. He pointed out that Finland and Sweden’s decisions to join Nato shortly after the Ukraine war began demonstrate a high level of unity among nations and military leaders.
“This is clear to everyone,” he said. “The urgency is seen.” The general emphasized the need for Nato members to build up their militaries again, stating that “we need it to be able to defend ourselves and therefore also to build up deterrence”.
As Western military and political leaders say they are ready for the fight, questions remain on whether this is a case of ambition outpacing reality.
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