**Ukraine Braces for Potential Russian Offensive into Sumy Oblast, But Uncertainty Remains**
Reports of an impending Russian summer offensive and troop buildups on Ukraine’s border have raised concerns in Sumy Oblast, with fears that a large-scale assault could be on the horizon. Ukrainian officials claim 50,000 Russian troops are amassed “in the direction of Sumy,” but the Kremlin’s full intentions remain unclear.
**Russian Troop Buildups and Limited Offensive Operations**
According to sources within Ukraine’s defense forces, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to create a “security buffer zone” along the border. This move has sparked concerns that Russia may be planning a larger-scale operation in Sumy Oblast. However, soldiers on the ground say they are unsure what lies ahead.
“We’re not sure if there will be an offensive into Sumy Oblast or not,” said Illia, a serviceman from the 80th brigade. “We expect the assaults to continue, but we don’t know what the scale will be.”
**Limited Access to Information and Uncertainty**
The situation in Sumy Oblast is further complicated by limited access to information. Journalists’ access has been restricted by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), and the military has shared little about the front-line situation. The Ukrainian military command of Kursk Oblast declined to comment, citing a “limited” ability to discuss the matter.
**Civilians in Sumy Oblast**
A civilian evacuation is ongoing in Sumy Oblast, with nearly 56,000 residents having been evacuated under mandatory orders. Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on May 19 that three municipalities – Bilopillya, Vorozhba, and Nova Sloboda – had been asked to evacuate in the preceding month.
**Experts Weigh In**
Independent experts from the Black Bird Group say they would be “surprised” if Sumy Oblast became one of the main axes of any Russian summer offensive. According to Kastehelmi, Moscow’s priority will likely remain the eastern region of Donbas. While Russia may continue to attack in Sumy Oblast, it is seen as a secondary direction where they can tie up Ukrainian resources.
**Engineering Equipment and Border Fortification**
Border areas are notoriously difficult to fortify due to raids from both sides and their proximity to Russia. Kastehelmi noted that while Russia appears to have captured more villages than initially confirmed, the pace has been “really slow.” Moscow may simply be trying to prevent another potential Ukrainian incursion.
**Ukraine’s Defense Forces**
The source in Ukraine’s defense forces told the Kyiv Independent that Russia’s full intentions will depend on whether or not it manages to secure the so-called “security buffer zone” ordered by Putin. If successful, this could lead to further Russian aggression into Sumy Oblast and beyond.
“It is clear to us that if they manage to do this, they will go further,” said the source. “Because Russia’s overall goal has not changed – to occupy all of Ukraine.”
**Independent Journalism**
The Kyiv Independent relies on community support rather than a paywall. Our independent journalism allows for in-depth reporting and analysis of important issues like this one.
