**Russia Prepares for Major Offensive in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast**
Ukrainian military officials and defense analysts are warning that Russia is gearing up for a significant military push in the eastern Donetsk Oblast this summer. The goal, according to experts, is to take control of the territory that has eluded Moscow since 2022.
The US government and some analysts believe that President Vladimir Putin remains convinced that a military victory is still possible, despite continued sanctions and battlefield losses that have strained Russia’s capabilities. This conviction, combined with stalled peace efforts and Western ceasefire calls, suggests that a major conflict could be on the horizon.
**A New Phase in the War**
Analysts say that while the main focus will be on capturing Donetsk, particularly the towns of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, Russia is also preparing smaller operations in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. These moves suggest a two-pronged strategy by Moscow: to capture key territories and create “buffer zones” that would give Russian forces more control over the region.
**Ukraine’s Challenges**
Despite its efforts to hold onto the contested territory, Ukraine faces significant challenges. The country is struggling with recruitment shortfalls and limited firepower, while Russia has exceeded its military recruitment goals. However, Ukrainian military intelligence reports that Russia lacks the manpower for full-scale offensives in both regions, suggesting a more targeted approach.
**Ukraine’s Defense Strategy**
Instead of attempting to retake territory, Ukraine is focusing on defense, aiming to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces rather than reclaiming land. This strategy relies on sustained foreign weapons supplies, particularly from the US, which are not guaranteed. The UK and other European countries have signaled increased support for Ukraine, but Russia has seized on this as proof that Europe opposes peace.
**The Path Ahead**
As tensions escalate, it’s clear that a major conflict in Donetsk Oblast is possible. The international community must remain vigilant and continue to provide support to Ukraine. By understanding the complexities of the war, we can better prepare for what lies ahead.
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