**Russia’s War Strategy: Grinding Ukraine Down Over Time**
In a disturbing development, Russia is expanding its missile reserves, increasing drone production, and modifying drone technologies as part of a long-term military strategy to achieve its war objectives in Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this suggests that Russia is committed to securing victory through military means in a protracted conflict.
The assessment comes after a week of intensified Russian combined drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Despite calls from the US for a ceasefire and renewed Kyiv-Moscow negotiations, Moscow remains committed to its original maximalist objectives – essentially, Ukraine’s full capitulation. The lack of interest in any form of ceasefire is a worrying sign that Russia is ready to sustain a long and bloody conflict.
**Russia’s Growing Strike Capabilities**
ISW notes that Russia’s growing stockpile of ballistic missiles, rising drone output, and ongoing drone adaptations demonstrate a sustained effort to strengthen its strike capabilities. The Economist reports that Russia has accumulated around 500 ballistic missiles, while Moscow is producing about 100 Shahed explosive drones per day – roughly four to five times the daily output estimated in late 2023.
Moreover, Ukrainian military intelligence informs The Economist that Russia intends to increase this drone production to 500 units per day. Engineers in Ukraine note that Russian forces are actively modifying Shahed drones to overcome Ukrainian electronic warfare systems, incorporating artificial intelligence and integration with Ukrainian internet and mobile networks for improved navigation.
**New Tactics, New Challenges**
A Ukrainian officer interviewed by The Economist notes that Russian drones are flying at altitudes of 2,000 to 2,500 meters, beyond the effective range of small arms and shoulder-fired missiles used by Ukrainian mobile air defense units. In a worrying development, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reports that Russian forces have set a new altitude record with a Shahed drone flight reaching 4,900 meters.
Colonel Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, confirms that Russia is producing both Shahed and decoy drones in higher numbers and deploying them at higher altitudes. The resurgence of large-scale missile and drone strike packages aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of enhancing its domestic weapons production and long-term war preparations.
**Russia’s Goals Unchanged, Economy Struggles**
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service Chief Oleh Ivashchenko warns that Russia’s goal of full control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts remains unchanged. He also cautions that Russia is preparing for a future conflict with NATO, in line with ISW’s assessments.
While Russia remains committed to its war goals, its economy struggles to cope with the costs of the ongoing conflict. The economic strain on Russia may yet prove to be a factor in Moscow’s long-term strategy, as the Kremlin weighs the costs and benefits of sustaining a protracted and bloody conflict.
**Conclusion**
Russia’s evolving tactics point to a plan for grinding Ukraine down over time. As the war continues, it is essential for international actors to take note of these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly. The international community must remain vigilant in its support for Ukraine, as Russia’s military strategy poses significant challenges to the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
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