**Russian Advances in Eastern Ukraine: A New Threat to Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk**
In a recent development, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russian forces have significantly expanded their control southwest of Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, in eastern Ukraine. This expansion could potentially enable a future assault on Kostiantynivka or support the envelopment of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad from the northeast.
For months, Russia has been pushing to capture the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and other Ukrainian strongholds. However, their advances have mostly stalled or even reversed in areas where Ukrainian troops counterattack and reclaim their previously lost positions.
**Geolocated Footage Shows Russian Advancements**
On May 23rd, geolocated footage from ISW showed Russian forces advancing south of Popiv Yar and capturing fields near the settlement. Milbloggers reported that the 150th Motorized Rifle Division was involved in these advances, as well as the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment near Novoolenivka. Additional Russian advances were reported toward Poltavka, Rusyn Yar, and Romanivka.
**Ukrainian Resistance Slows Russian Advances**
Despite these movements, ISW emphasized that Russian forces must eliminate remaining Ukrainian positions southwest of Toretsk and push defenders north of the Kleban-Byk reservoir to continue their advance along key highways. Progress near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk remains slow due to heavily contested terrain and drone operations.
Russian units still face difficulty breaking through Ukrainian defenses in these areas, suggesting that the conflict is far from over. In Pokrovsk area, Russian forces have intensified assaults to the southeast and south of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, possibly to support a planned future envelopment.
**A Strategic Decision Ahead**
ISW concludes that given limited manpower and matériel, Russia is unlikely to sustain major offensives toward both Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka simultaneously. Instead, they will likely have to prioritize one direction, posing a significant strategic decision for the Russian military.
As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how Ukrainian forces will respond to these developments. One thing is clear: the conflict in eastern Ukraine remains a complex and fluid situation that requires close monitoring and analysis.
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