**Russia’s War Strategy: A Long-Term Bet on Attrition**
Despite suffering significant losses, Russia appears to be in no hurry to change its approach to the conflict in Ukraine. According to a recent report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Moscow is engaged in a war of attrition that may ultimately favor Russia, provided it can withstand Western aid for Ukraine.
At the heart of this strategy lies Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwavering commitment to the war effort. For him, the conflict is an “existential struggle against the West,” and he remains determined to see it through to 2025 or beyond. The DIA report suggests that Putin views the war as a crucial test of his leadership, legacy, and Russia’s place in the world.
**Russia’s Conditions for Peace**
The terms Russia has set for any potential peace settlement remain largely unchanged since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. These demands include Ukraine’s neutrality, limited armed forces, restricted military aid from allies, a permanent prohibition on NATO membership, and the withdrawal of all military forces from four occupied Ukrainian oblasts: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Ukraine has categorically rejected these terms, viewing them as essentially equivalent to surrender. The rejection is not surprising, given that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are at stake.
**A Peace Plan That Favors Russia**
The report highlights a concerning parallel between US President Trump’s peace plan and Russia’s demands. Like Putin, Trump advocated for Ukraine relinquishing 22.5% of its territory and foregoing NATO membership. This would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression and compromise the rights of millions of Ukrainians living under occupation.
**Russia’s Confidence in Victory**
The DIA assessment reveals that Moscow remains confident in its ultimate victory, despite sustaining massive military losses. The fact that Russia continues to engage in a war of attrition suggests that it is willing to incur significant costs in pursuit of its objectives.
In conclusion, the conflict in Ukraine has become a long-term test of endurance for both sides. While Russia appears committed to seeing this through, it remains to be seen whether Ukraine and its Western allies will find a way to change the course of events before it’s too late.
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