**Russia’s Ballistic Missile Upgrade Raises Concerns for Ukraine**
In a recent attack on Kyiv, Russia’s upgraded ballistic missiles posed a challenge to Ukraine’s air defenses. According to Yurii Ihnat, the Air Force spokesperson, six out of nine missiles launched at the capital were successfully intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses. However, Ihnat noted that the modified missiles are now equipped with radar-decoy systems and use quasi-ballistic flight paths, making them harder to track and intercept.
**The New Threat**
The upgraded missiles are designed to evade interception using Patriot systems, which rely on software calculations to predict the missile’s trajectory. The new system makes it more difficult for the Patriot system to accurately predict where the missile will be, complicating the interception process. While Ihnat emphasized that the upgrade doesn’t make interception impossible, it does pose a significant challenge for Ukraine’s air defenses.
**The Attack**
The attack on Kyiv came just hours after the start of the largest prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The explosions and drone debris caused multiple fires and widespread damage across the capital, with residential buildings, cars, and businesses hit in multiple districts. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported injuries due to shock or falling debris, but most casualties were minor.
**Ukraine’s Response**
Ukraine’s air defenses downed six ballistic missiles and neutralized 245 out of 250 Shahed-type drones using missiles and electronic warfare. The country has also significantly ramped up its own missile production, with Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin reporting an eightfold increase in cruise missile production compared to 2023.
**Commentary**
The upgrade of Russia’s ballistic missiles poses a significant challenge for Ukraine’s air defenses. While the success rate of interception remains high, the new threat requires Ukraine’s allies to improve their capabilities to counter this evolving threat. The attack on Kyiv highlights the ongoing conflict and the need for continued support from the international community.
**Analysis**
The use of radar-decoy systems and quasi-ballistic flight paths by Russia’s upgraded ballistic missiles is a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This new technology makes it more difficult for air defenses to intercept these missiles, requiring a corresponding upgrade in capabilities from Ukraine’s allies. The increased missile production by Ukraine also underscores the country’s commitment to defending its territory and its people.
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