**Russia’s Wider War on Ukraine is Slowing Down**
After 39 months of intense fighting, Russia’s wider war on Ukraine seems to be losing steam. According to Ukrainian analyst Tatarigami, the momentum of this war is gradually fading, and neither side has enough resources to achieve a decisive strategic breakthrough.
Despite President Vladimir Putin’s suggestion of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Türkiye, it’s unclear if this will lead to a ceasefire or just stall for more time. Meanwhile, Russian troops have managed to occupy only 18.3% of Ukraine, including Crimea – up from 17.6% last year. However, this gain has come at the cost of hundreds of thousands of casualties, including killed and wounded.
**Russian Troops Losing Ground**
Russia’s military is reportedly losing around 1,000 troops every day, on average, which is more than Ukraine’s losses. This is despite Russia’s bigger population and efforts to recruit more soldiers. In fact, Russian forces are still recruiting slightly more fresh troops than they lose trained ones each month.
**War Fatigue Sets in**
With both sides expending human and material resources with little prospect of achieving their strategic goals, the war dynamics point to a stalemate. Ukraine is constraining Russian gains but failing to reverse them, while Russia hasn’t fully occupied Donetsk Oblast or extended its occupation deeper into Ukraine.
**Predicting a Truce or Slow-Burning Phase**
Given the growing fatigue on both sides, Ukrainian analyst Tatarigami predicts that the war will move towards either a truce or a slow-burning phase, where intensity declines until one side builds enough resources to change the situation. This is barring any major power shift.
**No Significant New Units Formed**
Tatarigami notes that despite Russia’s efforts, no significant new units have been formed since the war began in February 2022. The recent formation of the 68th Motor Rifle Division and a few other units do not represent a substantial expansion of Russian forces.
**Frontline Dynamics Point to Stalemate**
While Ukraine is not at risk of implosion, neither is Russia’s military on the verge of collapse. Both sides are likely to continue expending resources with little chance of achieving their strategic objectives. In this context, a war that’s beginning to freeze in place seems more plausible than any decisive victory.
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