**Russia May Stretch Out Peace Negotiations Through Summer, Avoiding Immediate Ceasefire**
The war in Ukraine may not be coming to an end anytime soon. According to a recent report by The Washington Post, Russia could use the current ceasefire talks as a smokescreen for preparing a fresh wave of military attacks. This raises concerns that Moscow will drag out negotiations throughout the summer while avoiding calls from the US and Europe for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire.
**Russia’s Summer Offensive Plans**
The Ukrainian forces have reported that the Russian military has already launched a large-scale summer offensive, despite ongoing talks in Turkiye. To make matters worse, Russia has increased recruitment efforts, offering generous bonuses to join the army. President Vladimir Putin recently boasted that the Russian army is enlisting 50,000 soldiers per month.
**Delicate Balance**
The situation is complex, with Putin trying to avoid blame if peace talks fail. At the same time, he wants to create conditions for a future cutoff of arms deliveries and intelligence to Ukraine if peace talks do not progress. This delicate balance makes it difficult to predict the outcome of these negotiations.
**Low-Level Delegation from Russia**
The Russian delegation arrived in Turkiye on May 15, but it remains unclear whether the first direct talks since spring 2022 will happen. What’s more, Moscow has only sent a low-level team of deputy ministers and experts, which is the same team that took part in the 2022 talks ahead of the Bucha massacre.
**No Peaceful Outcome in Sight**
Russian political analyst Vladimir Pastukhov believes that the chances of a peaceful outcome in this round have plummeted after Putin’s announcement. Unless something dramatic changes, which seems unlikely, it appears that Putin has chosen war over de-escalation.
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