**Romania’s Presidential Election Raises Concerns for Ukraine and NATO**
The outcome of Romania’s presidential election has left many in the international community worried. George Simion, a far-right politician who is persona non grata in Ukraine, has emerged as the front-runner in the first round of voting. This development raises significant concerns about the future direction of Romania’s foreign policy, particularly with regards to its role in supporting Ukraine.
According to exit polls, Simion secured 30-33% of the vote in the May 4 election. He is expected to face either Nicușor Dan or Crin Antonescu in the runoff scheduled for later this month. While Simion has spoken out against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions as a “war criminal,” he has also consistently opposed the delivery of arms to Ukraine and argued against Romania’s participation in such efforts.
**A Threat to Ukrainian Interests**
Ukraine has banned George Simion from entering the country due to his anti-Ukrainian activities, including his stance on the war and support for Romanian-Moldovan unification. This move highlights the significant concerns that Kyiv has about Simion’s views. Romania plays a critical role in supporting Ukraine through military aid and infrastructure, making Simion’s potential presidency a worrying development for Ukrainian interests.
**Romania’s NATO Role**
As a key NATO member and critical logistics hub, Romania hosts US missile defense systems and three NATO airbases. The country also plays a vital role in supporting Ukraine through naval demining and F-16 pilot training. Furthermore, 70% of Ukrainian grain exports transit Romanian waters in the Black Sea. A shift in Romania’s foreign policy under a Simion presidency could have significant implications for Ukraine’s security and economic interests.
**The Role of Social Media**
This election is also notable for its connection to social media manipulation. The Constitutional Court annulled the November 2024 results, which had shown a surprise victory for pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu. Authorities cited foreign interference, disinformation, and cyberattacks as reasons for the rerun. Additionally, regulators launched an investigation into TikTok’s algorithmic amplification of Georgescu’s campaign content.
**Concerns from Western Allies**
Western allies are on edge about Romania’s potential shift in foreign policy under a Simion presidency. Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has warned against holding elections under martial law, arguing that it would fracture unity and give Putin a strategic advantage. The international community will be closely watching the runoff election to see whether Simion’s views on Ukraine and NATO will prevail.
**A Potential Shift in Romania’s Foreign Policy**
George Simion has pledged to “find a way” to restore Călin Georgescu, the pro-Russian candidate, to a leadership role if elected. This promise has further fueled international concern about the potential direction of Romania’s foreign policy under a Simion presidency. The outcome of this election will have significant implications for Ukraine, NATO, and the broader region.
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