**Trump’s Failing Negotiations: A Recipe for Disaster**
It has been nearly 100 days since Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency, and yet Russian missiles continue to rain down on Ukrainian civilians. Despite Trump’s pledge to end the war on “day one,” peace remains nowhere in sight. The administration’s failure to acknowledge its own shortcomings is a recipe for disaster.
Trump’s initial demands were straightforward: stop fighting and start negotiating. After his first conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he announced that a complete cessation of fighting was imminent. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the prospect of peace. However, since then, it has become clear that Putin has no intention of agreeing to a ceasefire or accepting Trump’s plan.
**Putin’s War Strategy: A Military Failure**
Russian President Vladimir Putin has relied on military might to deliver control over Ukraine since launching his full-scale invasion in February 2022. Despite suffering 700,000-800,000 casualties and controlling less Ukrainian territory than three years ago (18.3%), Putin believes that his forces can grind their way forward and achieve a military breakthrough.
However, few independent observers see much chance of that happening. Russia may be able to throw more men and bombs into the battle than Ukraine can, but it cannot instill in those on the front lines the will to fight. Defense has proven much easier than offense, making Putin’s war a massive failure from a military perspective.
**Playing Trump: Flattery and Business Prospects**
Putin has deployed all his resources to play Trump. The Russian president knows that Trump is highly susceptible to flattery, which he has used extensively in their meetings. He wants us to believe that he went to his private chapel to pray for Trump after the assassination attempt in 2024 and even had a portrait of Trump painted as a gift.
In addition to flattery, Putin has dangled lucrative business prospects before Trump and his negotiator, Steve Witkoff. A list of multi-billion-dollar investment opportunities was presented to them, supposedly becoming available if only Trump ditched Ukraine and lifted the sanctions against Russia. Both tactics have clearly worked, with no ceasefire in sight.
**European Leadership: The Key to Preventing a Betrayal**
The Europeans hold a trump card. They can prevent a shameful Munich-style betrayal of Ukraine by standing firm in their determination to continue assisting Ukraine financially and militarily. European leaders must make clear that they will proceed with their plans to support Ukraine’s defense and sovereignty no matter what.
In theory, Trump himself could change course by applying serious pressure on Putin and stepping up support for Ukraine. If that were to happen, he might then achieve the ceasefire that he seeks. Otherwise, he will continue to fail – as Putin and his cronies laugh at him behind his back.
**Conclusion**
The administration’s failure to acknowledge its own shortcomings in negotiations with Russia is a recipe for disaster. European leadership is key to preventing a shameful betrayal of Ukraine. It is time for the Europeans to stand firm and ensure that their support for Ukraine continues, no matter what.
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