**Ukraine’s Future: A Choice Between Two Peaces**
Imagine a world where Ukraine is forced to give up its territory to Russia, and a compliant government takes orders from Moscow. This was the reality in France during World War II, when the Vichy regime ruled under German occupation. But this option has been on offer for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022, and it’s not something Ukrainians want.
**A Different Kind of Peace**
Instead, there’s another way to achieve peace. It’s like the situation on the Korean Peninsula today, where a frozen front line has kept South Korea at peace for decades. This is done by accepting de facto borders and fortifying them with defensive military buildups and credible security guarantees. In Ukraine’s case, this would mean freezing the current frontline and either joining NATO or deploying Western troops to its territory.
**European Leaders Agree**
Many European governments are now considering this kind of solution, as demanded by the new U.S. administration. This could provide a robust defense against Russian aggression, allowing Ukraine to consolidate and remain at peace. But if Europeans fail to deliver a sufficient security guarantee, it could lead to another war.
**A Bogus Peace**
If Russia is allowed to regroup and rearm after a temporary ceasefire, it could attack again sooner rather than later. This cycle of violence could be repeated multiple times, implicating countries beyond Ukraine. If Europe fails to support Ukraine enough, the continent will face a new strategic reality that challenges NATO solidarity and leaves EU territory vulnerable.
**The Consequences**
If Ukraine doesn’t get enough support, Russia could test the limits of NATO’s mutual defense guarantee and either expose it as a dead letter or precipitate a direct military confrontation between nuclear powers. The consequences would be dire, with Europe facing perpetual vulnerability to Russian aggression.
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