**US Tariffs on India and China Could Strain Relations with Russia**
The US has taken a step towards punishing Moscow’s customers by imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India over its imports of Russian oil. This move is part of the Trump administration’s strategy to curb imports of fentanyl, among other non-trade issues.
**Tariffs Will Not Change Putin’s Stance**
Experts doubt that tariffs will change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stance on Ukraine. Eugene Rumer, a former US intelligence analyst for Russia, said there is “close to zero chance” Putin will agree to a ceasefire due to Trump’s threats of tariffs and sanctions on Russia.
**Potential Oil Market Disruptions Could Spike Global Prices**
Secondary tariffs could inflict pain on the Russian economy, but they also carry costs for Trump. The tariffs would likely raise oil prices, creating political problems for him before next year’s US midterm congressional elections. The US has pressured Russia since late 2022 with a price cap on its oil exports, intended to erode Russia’s ability to fund the war.
**India and China Could Push Back Against Tariffs**
China and India have signaled that they will not give up their sovereignty over oil purchases. They contend that they are playing by the previous rules, namely the price cap on Russian crude. This means that they could push back against tariffs, making it difficult for the US to secure trade deals with them.
**Russia Could Retaliate Against Tariffs**
Russia could retaliate against tariffs by closing the CPC Pipeline from Kazakhstan, which would create a global supply crisis. Western oil firms ship up to 1 million barrels per day via CPC, and any disruptions to Russian shipments could propel Brent oil prices into the $80s or higher.
**Trump’s Tariff Gambit Comes with Massive Downside Risks**
Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said energy shocks are never welcome, especially not amidst a softening housing market and weak job growth. A key question is whether Trump can frame any economic pain as necessary to force Russia to negotiate.
**Conclusion**
The US tariffs on India and China could strain relations with Russia, but they also carry costs for Trump. The potential oil market disruptions could spike global prices, creating political problems for him before next year’s midterm congressional elections. The question is whether Trump can frame any economic pain as necessary to force Russia to negotiate.
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