**Russia’s War on Ukraine: Why Putin Can’t Declare War**
Despite waging a devastating war on Ukraine for nearly three years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to officially declare war on the country. Instead, he continues to refer to it as a “special military operation.” This unusual terminology has sparked debate among experts, who argue that Russia is indeed at war with Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has taken a devastating toll, with over 1 million casualties and countless war crimes committed by Russian forces. Despite this, Putin remains hesitant to declare war, fearing the consequences for his regime and the economy.
**A War in Name Only**
Russia’s reluctance to declare war stems from concerns about the impact on its industry and economy. A formal declaration would require a full mobilization of resources, including manpower, which would be deeply unpopular among the Russian population. In September 2022, partial mobilization was announced, but this led to widespread protests against the war inside Russia.
“It’s a delicate balance,” says Karolina Hird, deputy team lead at the Institute for the Study of War. “Putin has managed to keep himself safe by separating the direct effects of the war from the majority of the Russian population. But as soon as that starts to spill over and actually be felt by more of the Russian domestic population, that’s when he gets into trouble.”
**Economic Consequences**
A declaration of war would have significant implications for Russia’s economy. The country has already allocated 6.3% of its GDP to defense this year, which is the highest level since the Cold War. However, experts argue that this is still far below what would typically indicate a country fully mobilized for war.
“Russia is already on a war footing,” says Federico Borsari, a defense expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Defense production in key capability segments such as drones, missiles, and armored vehicles is at full steam.”
**Manpower Shortages**
One of the critical areas where a declaration of war could make a significant difference is manpower. Throughout the conflict, Putin has avoided a full mobilization, opting instead to pay people to fight. This approach has managed to replenish losses but is considered unsustainable in the long term.
“Russia still has a sizeable population pool it can draw from, at least in the near term,” says Borsari. “However, this pool may not be sufficient to sustain the current pace of losses beyond the first half of 2026.”
**Geopolitical Ramifications**
A formal declaration of war on Ukraine would also have significant international ramifications for Putin. It would convey a message that Russia is willing to engage in all-out conflict with NATO and undermine its claims that it poses no threat.
“He will no longer be able to pretend that he’s interested primarily in a partial victory by taking only the Donetsk region and Crimea,” says Chris York, news operations editor at the Kyiv Independent. “A formal Russian declaration of war will convey the entirely opposite message.”
**Conclusion**
Putin’s reluctance to declare war on Ukraine is driven by concerns about the impact on his regime, economy, and population. However, experts argue that Russia is indeed at war with Ukraine and that a formal declaration would have significant implications for both countries.
As the conflict continues, Putin faces increasing pressure from international leaders and domestic critics to take a more decisive stance on the war. Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether he will declare war or continue to maintain his ambiguous terminology.
