**Nato Summit: A Pre-Cooked Menu to Avoid a Row with the US**
The Nato summit in The Hague next week is expected to be a tense meeting, but Secretary General Mark Rutte has already settled on a menu that will avoid a row with the most powerful member of the alliance, the US. President Donald Trump wants European allies to increase their defence spending, and that’s exactly what they’ll get – along with some compromise and fudge.
The summit statement is being reduced to just five paragraphs, reportedly due to Trump’s demands for brevity. This will help hide divisions between Trump and his European allies on trade, Russia, and the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The US president has been critical of Nato, even questioning its foundation of collective defence.
Mark Rutte has worked hard to give Trump a win by offering a compromise formula: increase core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% towards defence-related expenditure. However, the definition of defence-related expenditure is so vague that it might be rendered meaningless. This could lead to “creative accounting” and undermine the credibility of Nato’s new spending target.
The real danger is to interpret the demand for increased defence spending as arbitrary or a symbolic gesture – just bowing to US pressure. But Rutte himself has said that Russia could attack a Nato country within five years, and Nato needs a 400% increase in its air and missile defences: thousands more armoured vehicles and tanks, and millions more artillery shells.
Some European nations are already boosting their defence spending to 5% of GDP, but many will struggle to meet the new target. Spain’s prime minister has called it unreasonable and counterproductive, and Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t even been able to say when the UK will spend 3% of its GDP on defence.
The summit will be a test for Mark Rutte as secretary general, but with Trump at odds with most of his allies on Russia, the greatest threat facing the Alliance, there’s no guarantee it’ll go according to plan. Specific discussions about Russia and the war in Ukraine have been muted, and contentious issues have been stripped from the summit agenda.
**Commentary**
The Nato summit is a prime example of how the alliance has become increasingly dependent on the US for its survival. President Trump has made it clear that he wants European allies to increase their defence spending, and they will do so – albeit with some compromise and fudge. The real danger is to interpret this as an arbitrary demand or a symbolic gesture.
The war in Ukraine and Russia’s invasion have forced a response from Nato members, but the alliance still faces significant challenges in terms of its collective defence capabilities. Mark Rutte has said that Nato needs a 400% increase in its air and missile defences, but specific discussions about this will be muted at the summit.
The biggest threat facing Nato is Russia, yet the alliance’s response to this threat has been inconsistent and divided. President Trump has already shattered Nato’s united front by talking to Putin and withholding military support to Ukraine. The summit will be a test for Mark Rutte as secretary general, but with Trump at odds with most of his allies on Russia, there’s no guarantee it’ll go according to plan.
**Key Points**
* The Nato summit in The Hague next week is expected to be a tense meeting.
* President Trump wants European allies to increase their defence spending, and they will do so – albeit with some compromise and fudge.
* Mark Rutte has offered a compromise formula: increase core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% towards defence-related expenditure.
* The definition of defence-related expenditure is so vague that it might be rendered meaningless.
* Some European nations are already boosting their defence spending to 5% of GDP, but many will struggle to meet the new target.
* Specific discussions about Russia and the war in Ukraine have been muted at the summit.
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